Everton vs Bournemouth: Opposition Analysis | Last Call for the FA Cup at Goodison?

08/02/2025 03:34

Even if the Blues progress today, this could be the final outing for the world's oldest football competition at the Old Lady

Everton's 4-0 demolition job on Leicester City last weekend capped off a magnificent run of results under new boss David Moyes. Three consecutive league victories have transformed the club's previously perilous position in the table, to the extent that extreme, reactionary measures in the winter transfer window could be avoided.

The Blues ended up bringing in just one new addition — a loan, which turns into a mandatory purchase, given an unspecified number of appearances, for 22-year-old midfielder Carlos Alcaraz, a long-term target. Today, attention turns to the FA Cup, and a Fourth Round meeting at Goodison Park with Bournemouth.

Form

The Cherries have proven to be something of a revelation this season. Last term, newly-appointed boss Andoni Iraola overcame a difficult start to finish a very creditable 12th. More than €104m was spent to reinforce the squad in the summer, with an additional €22.5m invested in the midseason transfer window. Of course, the big departure was main striker Dominic Solanke, sold to Tottenham Hotspur for €64.3m, but the team has coped well without him — and in fact, has actually gone up a level.

Part-funded by the sale of Solanke, the South Coast outfit made eight new signings, those earning the most playing time being goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga (Chelsea, loan), striker Evanilson (Porto, €37m) and centre half Dean Huijsen (Juventus, €15.2m). The Spanish stopper looks a rejuvenated man, a million miles away from the derided figure he was at Stamford Bridge, whereas the Brazilian forward has led the line effectively and the teenage defender is already, predictably, being linked with moves to "elite" sides.

Bournemouth again took some time to get going this term, winning just twice (against Everton and an awful Southampton side) in their opening seven league fixtures, including an early exit in the EFL Cup. Amidst some tough opposition, a 1-0 away loss to the Foxes stands out as a poor result. A strong run of two wins, over Manchester City and Arsenal, along with a draw with Aston Villa, showed that the Cherries were no pushovers. A couple of losses followed, but the team then commenced a brilliant 12-match unbeaten sequence.

They crushed Championship outfit West Bromwich Albion 5-1 in the previous round of the FA Cup and then pulverized two high-flying teams in the league, in Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest, by a combined 9-1 scoreline. Last time out, the Cherries tasted defeat for the first time since late November, going down 2-0 to Liverpool at the Vitality Stadium.

Style of Play

Iraola has drawn a huge amount of praise this season, following an impressive first campaign in English football. The relatively unknown Basque head coach is a proponent of the 4-2-3-1 formation, which he's deployed in every game during the campaign so far, and on all but a handful of occasions last term. It's apparent watching how Bournemouth play, with the intense, expertly coordinated high press, allied to fluid movement and one-touch passing when in possession, just how much work goes on in training. It's quite possible that they are the best coached side in the league.

Roving fullbacks provide overlaps, with wide men drifting inside looking to pick up spaces to receive the ball. They play with a quick tempo with the intention to stretch and confuse defences, elude the press and create openings; it can be tough to deal with. Iraola won Premier League Manager of the Month and will no doubt be at, or near the top of the list of candidates for any vacant positions at moneyed clubs all over Europe in the summer. Bournemouth will have to fight off interested suitors to retain the 42-year-old tactician.

The visitors are not a high-possession side, commanding a mere 46.2% on average (ranking 15th). Likewise, their pass completion percentage stands at 79.0% (17th). They will go direct when appropriate, with 14.2% of their balls played long. Their attack is quite lopsided, heavily favouring the left side (43%); only Forest are more one-sided in their play. They take 16.2 shots per 90 minutes (fourth ranked) and have scored 41 times, an underperformance from an xG of 45.6. The Cherries have won a league-high five penalties on the road. They allow 14.0 attempts on goal per 90 (14th), but have conceded only 28 times, an improvement on an xGA of 31.2 (eighth), although they've shipped six from set-pieces in away games (19th).

Player Assessment

Justin Kluivert is Bournemouth's standout, and one of the form players in the league. The much-travelled 25-year-old, who first caught the eye as a teenager at Ajax, had looked unlikely to capitalize on his early promise, but has gone up a level - and more - under Iraola. Operating behind the lone striker, the Dutchman has scored in four of his last five outings, and claimed a hat-trick against the Magpies two weeks ago, as well as providing three assists.

Leading the line as an auxiliary striker will be Dango Ouattara. The winger is rapid and scored three goals in Bournemouth's rout of Forest. He leads the team with 9.57 progressive pass reception per 90 and completes 47.9% of his dribbles.

A major test for Jake O'Brien on Everton's right will be the combination of attacking left back Milos Kerkez with winger Antoine Semenyo. The former is highly touted and leads the team with 0.65 completed crosses into the opposition area per 90, whilst the latter is a strong runner, carrying into the penalty area 2.19 times per 90 and completes 53.8% of his dribble attempts. He also leads the visitors in taking 4.06 shots per 90.

Solution

Prior encounters, in which the Cherries have emerged victorious both times, mean little in the context of Everton's managerial change and shift in playing style. Bournemouth are a very aggressive pressing side, so we could see the hosts going more direct with their passing than in recent home games. It's also tough to break their passing rhythm when they get established and when they do lose the ball their counterpress is highly effective.

Everton's best chance will be to try to jump on the visitors straight away, before they can get into the flow of the game. A high press, trusting in the pace of O'Brien and Jarrad Branthwaite to keep the back door closed against some rapid attackers, will be an audacious strategy, but could pay dividends. Beto's physical presence will challenge the Cherries defence and the Toffees will again surely look to play the ball to feet for the striker to run onto.

The South Coast side aren't the biggest, and could be vulnerable to corners, indirect free kicks and crosses from general play. Depending on the officiating, Bournemouth's aggressive pressing could give up plenty of free kicks. In build up, I expect Everton to try to move the ball quickly and with intent, in order to pressure the visitors. There's no reason for the hosts not to attack the Cherries, which should get the crowd involved and create a positive cup-tie atmosphere.

In terms of team selection, with limited options I see no changes from last time out, though I expect Moyes to turn to his bench earlier than usual, with the last Goodison derby to be played on Wednesday night. Two or three substitutions around the hour mark may be needed, with new recruit Alcaraz likely to get his first taste of action in a Royal Blue shirt from the bench, along with Tim Iroegbunam and possibly Jack Harrison. There's nothing to lose here and I'm hoping for a real old-fashioned FA Cup experience, with the Toffees possibly wanting it that little bit more.

Prediction: Everton 2-1 Bournemouth

Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com