The Preview: Preston North End v Norwich City
12/04/2024 07:52
Squeaky bum time.
We're down to the stage where each game changes the picture.
On Tuesday, City missed a gilt-edged opportunity to put breathing space between us and other challengers for a playoff spot. But Coventry's loss eased the pain.
On Wednesday, Hull's failure to win changed the equation again. With so few games remaining, six points behind us with a game in hand sounds a good deal better than four behind with a game in hand.
The gainers from the midweek round were Preston, who've hauled themselves back into the mix and given Saturday's game an extra edge. A Preston win will blow the race open; a draw will maintain much of the status quo; a Norwich win will reinforce our prime position.
Thanks to our form since January, it's not the last chance saloon for City – but it probably is for Preston. They sit five points behind us with a game in hand, and a schedule after Saturday that looks challenging: Southampton, QPR (more about them later), Leicester and West Brom.
Question: Preston will be focussed on beating us. Can they do it?
As always in the Championship, predictions are a hazardous business. Over the past five games, Preston's record matches ours: three wins, a draw and a loss. They had a spectacular February, beating Coventry, Boro and Ipswich; then a dip including a home defeat by Stoke.
In other words, Preston blow hot and cold. They're one of the many teams who've conceded fewer goals than we have – yet our goal difference is far better because of the 75 goals we've scored, to their 56.
While Preston's goal stats – not to mention the 0-0 draw at Carrow Road earlier in the season – might suggest a defensively inclined team, that's not how they set up. Manager Ryan Lowe is known as attack-minded and has strikers capable of causing problems to any Championship defence.
Top scorer Will Keane has a respectable 13 this season. He's now backed up by two colleagues who've played less but have impressive strike rates: Emil Riis has 6 from 17 appearances; Milutin Osmajic has 8 (all at home) including the seven-minute hat-trick that gave them Tuesday's win.
That all said, we know City's capabilities and surely the outcome will largely depend on our performance.
As we stand, the equation for Norwich is simple: win our remaining four games and we can prepare for a home playoff fixture on Sunday 12 or (less likely) Monday 13 May.
The equation may be simple, but we know: this is Norwich. And our away form…
I was involved in a lively social media discussion about Tuesday night's game. The general opinion seemed (and still seems) to be that our failure was down to negative tactics from Wagner. On this occasion, I'm not so sure. At 2-0 up we continued to attack and create golden chances; it was obvious that Wednesday would respond after half-time, but we still cut them open. To me, the big cause for frustration on Tuesday was wayward finishing.
Of course, the substitution of Josh Sargent looks negative. And it would be if Josh was 100% fit and ready to play three full games in a week. I don't believe that's the case.
(Given his impact as a sub in some games before Christmas, changing Adam Idah for the not-yet-trusted Sydney van Hooijdonk looks increasingly odd. But that's for another day – in the here and now, let's hope Sargent and Barnes can be kept on the pitch together as much as possible. The seven-day gaps between games after Preston should help.)
Our away record continues to be mediocre, of course. Leicester aside, though, performances have shown signs of greater positivity. The half-hour at Boro before Sainz's dismissal, the comfortable win at Stoke, the first hour at Hillsborough – no cause for complaint at the approach there.
If we can take the same mentality to Preston, and also bring our shooting boots, there should be grounds for optimism despite the undoubtedly tough test we'll face.
I said I'd come back to QPR. While they're not on our radar, being a relegation-threatened side that we're not meeting again, they may play a big role in events higher up the table. Their final four games are Hull, Preston, Leeds and Coventry.
The relegation battle – which back in November it seemed we might be part of – is actually quite something this year, with eight teams fighting to avoid being among the two to join Rotherham in the drop.
If things continue as now, the final day may pit some of those strugglers against teams fighting for the playoffs:
- Birmingham v Norwich
- Coventry v QPR
- Plymouth v Hull
While Preston are battling it out with West Brom.
One way or another, let's just hope that weekend isn't the final game of our season.
