Everton vs Brentford: Opposition Analysis | The Blues Must Go for the Win

27/04/2024 11:00

Now that the exultation has passed the club must remain focused on the job ahead

Everton knocked it out of the (Goodison!) park on Wednesday night with an unprecedented performance in beating their neighbours in the Merseyside Derby. In doing so, they dealt a probable fatal blow to their city rival's league title hopes, as well as - more importantly - boosting their own survival chances immeasurably.

The team's turnaround in form arrived just in time, course-correcting a terrible winless league run for the Blues that had reached a staggering 13 games. Three victories from the last four matches has put them in a strong position with respect to their major relegation rivals, Nottingham Forest and Luton Town, who have so far failed to put any real pressure on.

This is no time to ease up, however tonight's home contest with Brentford presents a great opportunity for the Toffees to make safety almost guaranteed.

Form

Thomas Frank earned significant plaudits for guiding the London minnows to a ninth-place finish last season, narrowly missing out on qualification for European competition. In preparation for the new campaign the Bees owners spent around €65m on new additions, including new goalkeeper Mark Flekken (€13m) from Freiburg, Wolverhampton Wanderers defender Nathan Collins (€27m), Neal Maupay - on loan from Everton - and winger Kevin Schade (€25m). Starting goalkeeper David Raya headed out of the door to Arsenal on loan, with an obligation to make the move permanent for a fee of €32m in the coming summer.

Deprived of the services of star striker Ivan Toney for the first half of the campaign, due to a suspension received for gambling offences, the club got off to an underwhelming start, winning just one of their opening eight league matches and were beaten handily by the Blues at home in week six. They put together a three-win streak in the Autumn, including successes against Chelsea and West Ham United, only to hit the skids again, losing seven of their next eight, sending the team slumping down the table.

Brentford then picked up a couple of wins, over Forest and Wolves, across a four-game spell, before going nine without victory, suffering a further five defeats. They have stabilized recently, going unbeaten in five and arrive at Goodison Park on the back of consecutive wins, the last of which was a resounding 5-1 demolition of Luton at Kenilworth Road. The Bees currently occupy 15th spot in the table, two points above Everton.

Style of Play

Frank plays a very pragmatic style, one which involves plenty of tactical and formational tweaks tailored to the opposition. The Dane is known for making on-the-fly adjustments during a game, which demonstrates his acumen. Brentford have deployed a number of different formations during the campaign, recently ending a lengthy run of using a 3-5-2 by swapping to a 4-3-3 for their last two matches.

Averaging 44.0% possession (ranking 14th), the West Londoners will tend to sit off ball-control teams, but are more assertive in their play when the opposition is more defensive. They also rank a lowly 17th in the division with a pass completion rate of 76.2% and can be quite direct, with 15.1% of their balls going long. The Bees generate 12.8 attempts per 90 minutes (13th) and have scored 52 from an xG (Expected Goals) statistic of 54.5. Their strikes come from all routes, with no obvious stylistic indicators.

On defence, Brentford give up 14.4 attempts per 90 (ranking joint 13th) and have conceded 59 times, though from an xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) metric of 49.8, which shows quite a significant underperformance. They defend set-pieces capably, having conceded only seven from that route (joint fourth), but have been a little vulnerable to counterattacks, allowing five (joint 13th). The Bees commit few costly errors, having given up only two penalties and are the only side not to have scored an own goal this term.

Player Assessment

Yoane Wissa has had to lead the line for most of the season in Toney's absence and has stepped up to the task, hitting ten league goals. He scored a brace last time out, against the Hatters and is bang in form. The 27-year-old is a solid stand-in for his more illustrious teammate - who will be touch-and-go to be available today - and his constant availability has enabled the team to avoid deviating too much from their accustomed way of playing.

Brentford's main attacking threat over the first half of the campaign, the ankle injury that sidelined Bryan Mbeumo for more than three months from December hurt them badly. The forward has started the last three games following a measured return to duty and he's been impactful, scoring a goal and providing two assists. The pacy and tricky Cameroonian leads the Bees with 4.17 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per 90. He loves a dribble, albeit with a success rate of only 29.3%, but he carries into the opposition area 1.69 times per game.

Sergio Reguilon's lacklustre loan at Manchester United was cut short and the Tottenham Hotspur fullback ended up moving to Brentford on a temporary deal in the January transfer window. The Spaniard - once of Real Madrid - has added some attacking potential down the left flank, providing three assists in the last three games. He completes an average of 1.36 crosses into the opposition area per game, but also contributes defensively, making a combined 4.77 tackles and interceptions and 1.93 blocks per 90.

Solutions

Whilst Everton are now in pole position in the fight to avoid relegation it'd be unwise to relax following the team's epic victory over Liverpool. Momentum is everything in football and for the club to be able to obtain continuity of performance would be impactful on the remainder of the campaign. Most fans were glum about the possibility of collecting any points from the derby beforehand, focusing instead on winning against Brentford; it would be perverse, having gained an unexpected three points on Wednesday, to then fail to show up today.

The visitors arrive in strong form, having played better than results would indicate throughout much of the campaign. They possess a competent defence, a technical, versatile midfield and pace in the attack and a clever manager who's built a strong team spirit. In two outings against Sean Dyche's Everton, they have averaged a 62% share of possession, so we can expect something of that order this evening, which should suit the hosts. Ideally, the Blues could play similarly to how they did against the Reds.

Dyche has implied that he has no intention of allowing a comedown after the big win in midweek, which was good to hear. I'm expecting the Toffees to set traps for Brentford in midfield and to press them aggressively when they enter the target zones. It could be difficult to match the intensity they showed Wednesday, as Everton have to deal with a quick turnaround, whereas the Bees have had a full week to prepare. It could be time for Dyche to rotate a couple of players out and go with fresher legs.

The hosts don't need to reinvent the wheel this weekend. What worked against Liverpool should be enough to secure another win today, if they can hit 80-90% of the levels they managed midweek. Good teams use victory as a springboard to further success; we'll see this evening if Everton have that attitude.

Prediction: Everton 1-0 Brentford

Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com