Auditors warn Burnley about relegation risks

24/04/2024 10:34

2022/23 is the second full season at Burnley under the ownership of Alan Pace, who has presided over a rollercoaster period, including one relegation and one promotion, since taking over Burnley in December 2020, when his company purchase an 84% majority shareholding.

This represented a dramatic change in approach for Burnley, as the new owners put in very little of their own money, instead making the acquisition via a leveraged buy-out, placing debt on the club for the first time in years and using the club's own cash reserves.

Burnley's auditors (and indeed the club itself) have noted a "material uncertainty" around the the ability to continue as a going concern if they were not able to achieve the forecast player sales and cost reductions in the event of relegation.

Some might greet this as a classic case of "No shit, Sherlock", but it's clearly not ideal to see such a comment included in the accounts, as it's relatively rare for an auditor to sound such a note of caution.

Following relegation to the Championship, Burnley swung from a pre-tax £36m profit to a £36m loss, a £72m year-on-year decline, as revenue fell £58m (47%) from £123m to £65m and profit from player sales dropped £43m from £54m to £11m. This was partly offset by the club cutting expenses by £29m (1%) to £106m.  The loss after tax was smaller at £28m, thanks to an £8m tax credit, compared to a £10m charge the previous year.

Unlike most other football clubs, Burnley have a very good track record in terms of profitability. Indeed, in their last six years in the Premier League, they only posted a loss on one occasion – and that was just £3m in 2020/21, a season ravaged by COVID. In that 6-year period the club generated an impressive £111m profit. So, the £36m loss last season stands out like a sore thumb – and may well be the largest in the club's history.

In fact, in their six-year stay in the top flight up to 2021/22, Burnley's £111m profit was only bettered by Liverpool. Over this period, only four clubs managed to make money, while no fewer than three clubs lost more than quarter of a billion pounds, nameyl Everton £400m, Chelsea £260m and Aston Villa £256m.

The main driver of Burnley's £58m revenue decrease was broadcasting, which more than halved in the Championship, falling £57m from £105m to £48m. Commercial income also fell £3.1m (27%) from £11.5m to £8.4m, but match day actually rose by £1.7m (24%) from £7.0m to £8.7m.

Burnley's £36m loss before tax was actually the worst financial performance in the 2022/23 Championship, more than Sheffield United £31m, Norwich City £27m and Birmingham City £25m.  It will not have escaped people's attention that the two clubs with the largest losses were both promoted to the Premier League, partly reflecting investment in the squad, but also hefty bonus payments.

Player sales

Burnley's profit from player sales fell £43m from club record £54m to £11m, mainly from Maxwell Cornet's move to West Ham.  Their 31st July accounting close meant that the lucrative sales of Nick Pope to Newcastle United, Nathan Collins to Wolves and Dwight McNeil to Everton in the summer of 2022 were already included in the 2021/22 accounts.  Nevertheless, Burnley's £11m gain in 2022/23 was still the fifth largest in the Championship.

Burnley have rarely made big money from player sales, so last season's £11m was more in line with their usual performance. The previous season's £54m is comfortably the club's best ever, ahead of £31m in 2017/18. Indeed, they generated £7m or less five times in the last decade.

This season is also very low, with the highest transfer fee to date only £2m for Bobby Thomas moving to Coventry City. However, if Burnley do end up being relegated from the Premier League, we could expect similar activity to 2021/22, as they would again look to offload players in July.  Many of Burnley's signings in the last couple of years have been young players, who have developed well under Kompany's tutelage, so there is certainly talent available to sell. The club would prefer to do this as part of a considered player trading model, but relegation would almost certainly force their hand.

The magnitude of the club's financial challenge was clearly illustrated in 2021/22, when their £123m revenue was the lowest in the Premier League, a full £5m behind Watford £128m and £11m behind Norwich City £134m.  This was obviously miles below the elite, e.g. the top four clubs all earned more than four times as much as Burnley, led by Manchester City £613m, while the gap to sixth placed Arsenal was nearly quarter of a billion pounds. It will have been much the same this season.

Burnley will again receive well over £100m this season after the Premier League's new broadcasting deal saw in increase in 2022/23, thanks to growth in money from overseas, e.g. the club that finished 19th that season earned £112m.

Despite dropping down to the second tier, Burnley's match day income increased by £1.7m (24%) from £7.0m to £8.7m, a new club record. This was due to playing three more home games in the Championship, exacerbated by higher crowds.

Burnley's £8.4m commercial income just scraped into the top ten in the Championship, a fair way below the likes of Bristol City £21m, Norwich City £17m and Stoke City £17m.  The jury is very much out on whether the acquisition of a minority stake by former NFL star JJ Watt and his wife, Kealia, a professional soccer player will help the club to replicate the commercial success of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney at Wrexham (who had 'first mover' advantage).

Thanks to the highly successful season on the pitch, Burnley's average attendance actually increased from 19,317 to 19,953, despite relegation, as fans warmed to Kompany's team. This was over 3,000 higher than the last time they were in the Championship, but down from the 20,688 peak in the Premier League.  Again, it was very different in the top flight, where Burnley had the second smallest attendance, only above Brentford. In contrast, seven clubs regularly attract crowds above 50,000.

Burnley's wage bill was cut by £38m (42%) from £92m to £54m, thanks to relegation clauses in player contracts and replacing departing players with others on Championship salaries.  Despite the steep reduction, Burnley's £54m wage bill was the second highest in the Championship, only behind Norwich City's £56m. This was partly due to their reported wages including a hefty promotion bonus.

Despite the increase, Burnley's 83% was actually one of the better wages to turnover ratios in the Championship, as half of the clubs in this division suffered from unsustainable ratios well above 100%.

Burnley spent just under £100m in the summer window. That's not too shabby, but it was still firmly in the bottom half of the Premier League, where three clubs splashed out more than £200m, namely Chelsea £407m, Manchester City £226m and Arsenal £204m (according to Transfermarkt).

Burnley's £134m squad cost was still easily the highest in the Championship, ahead of the other two relegated clubs, Watford £103m and Norwich City £90m.

Debt

Burnley's gross financial debt further increased by £36m from £66m to £102m, comprising £70m bank loans, £31m factored debts and £1m hire purchase and finance leases.  Burnley's £102m gross debt was the sixth highest in the Championship, though a fair way below the likes of Middlesbrough £159m, Birmingham City £149m and Blackburn Rovers £142m.

However, most Championship debt has been provided by club owners, which is not the case at Burnley. In fact, the £102m that they owed to third parties was easily the highest in the division last season, far above Watford £64m, Sheffield United £53m and Norwich City £48m. All the other clubs had less than £22m external debt with many of them having none at all.

The interest burden on the club has clearly increased. Burnley paid no interest in the years before the takeover, but have made more than £12m net payments in the last three seasons, including £4m in 2022/23 alone.

The last time that the club received any funding from its owners was back in 2014 with £5m share capital.  In the last three years, no other club in the Championship provided more money to its owners than Burnley, whose £57m was around twice as much as Hull City £29m and Watford £26m.

After many years of the club being run sustainably (and conservatively), the change under Burnley's new owners has been fairly striking, both on and off the pitch. A disappointing relegation was followed by a thrilling promotion, while this season may well result in yet another change of division.

In fairness, this is a club that has had to overcome many financial challenges with one of the smallest budgets in the top flight, though parachute payments mean that it has an advantage in the Championship.

The boost from playing in the Premier League is obvious, so survival would really help the club from a financial perspective. Given the current position, that's a tough ask, but the Clarets are fighting hard to avoid a second relegation in three seasons.

Burnley is one of the few clubs where I have been in both the home and away ends.   I joined a Burnley fan for his 60^th birthday celebrations seeing them beat Hull 2-0.   I have been in the away end with Charlton.

Turf Moor is an old fashioned but atmospheric ground.   The area clearly has its economic and social challenges but with beautiful countryside nearby.  I rate Kompany and I hope Burnley stay up.